The Ramadan and Eid Fashion Retail Report 2026: The Gulf's Largest Commercial Season

Executive summary

Ramadan and Eid al-Fitr form the single largest commercial season in the Gulf, and one of the few retail peaks in the world that moves roughly eleven days earlier each year. Redseer projected UAE Ramadan-period retail spend in the region of USD 10bn for 2025. Chalhoub Group explicitly cited a favourable Ramadan calendar as one factor behind +11% GCC luxury fashion growth in Q1 2025.

The operational implication is unforgiving: the season cannot be addressed reactively. Campaign assets have to exist before Ramadan begins, because purchase intent concentrates in the weeks before Eid and the production window closes while the audience is least available.

Key findings

• UAE Ramadan-period retail spend was projected at approximately USD 10bn for 2025 (Redseer, March 2025).
• GCC luxury fashion grew +11% year on year in Q1 2025, with Chalhoub attributing part of the lift to the Ramadan calendar alongside new store openings.
• Toluna's 2025 Ramadan and Eid survey covered UAE (n≈510) and Saudi (n≈500) consumers aged 18–60 and explicitly examined the effect of Ramadan moving into winter months on consumption behaviour.
• Gifting is a distinct demand stream from personal purchase and follows a different timeline within the same season (Toluna, 2025).
• Because fashion is the largest online category in the Gulf, a growing share of Eid purchasing is decided on product pages rather than in store (Redseer, November 2025).

Methodology: this report synthesises published third-party research and states the definition and year used by each publisher. Commercial research-house market sizes (Research Intelo, HTF, Mordor and similar) are modelled estimates whose methodologies are not fully public; they are reported here as ranges and directional signals, not as audited facts. Consultancy and retail-group data (Chalhoub, Redseer, McKinsey/BoF) is based on observed transaction and survey data and is weighted more heavily. Any conclusion attributed to MODULA is interpretation, not measurement.

How the season actually behaves

MODULA interpretation: the most common failure is not budget, it is timing. Brands begin producing Ramadan content roughly three weeks before Ramadan, which places their campaign in market at the exact point their audience has already committed spend.

The moving calendar problem

Because the Islamic calendar is lunar, Ramadan shifts earlier each Gregorian year. Toluna's 2025 research explicitly measured the effect of Ramadan moving into winter months. For fashion this matters more than for most categories: fabric weight, layering, colour palette and shoot conditions all change with the season. A brand reusing last year's Ramadan imagery is not only repeating itself; within a few years it is showing the wrong weight of garment for the weather.

Country differences

• Saudi Arabia: largest volume, strong family and gifting emphasis, highly digital discovery.
• UAE: large tourist and expatriate component alongside national demand; hospitality and event dressing is a bigger share.
• Qatar and Kuwait: highly formal occasion dressing; couture and made-to-order demand concentrates here.
• Bahrain and Oman: more restrained purchasing patterns, stronger family-mediated decisions.

Opportunities

• Pre-produced seasonal capsules with imagery finished before Ramadan begins.
• Gifting-specific content — packaging, presentation, gift sets — which most fashion brands neglect entirely.
• Late-night media strategy aligned to the region's inverted activity clock during Ramadan.
• Post-Eid retention content that keeps new customers engaged rather than treating the season as a one-off spike.

Risks

• Tone: Ramadan is a religious period before it is a retail season; overtly commercial creative reads badly.
• Stock-outs during the final ten days, when demand is most concentrated.
• Discount dependency that trains the audience to wait for the sale.
• Reusing Northern-hemisphere seasonal styling that no longer matches the shifting calendar.

Forecast

With GCC fashion retail forecast at ≈ USD 127bn by 2030 and Ramadan concentrating a disproportionate share of annual apparel spend, the season will remain the highest-return production investment in the Gulf calendar. MODULA's interpretation is that brands will increasingly shift to producing Ramadan content nine to twelve months ahead as part of an annual content calendar, rather than treating it as a standalone campaign.

How much is spent during Ramadan in the Gulf?

Redseer projected UAE Ramadan-period retail spend at approximately USD 10bn for 2025. Chalhoub Group also credited a favourable Ramadan calendar with contributing to +11% GCC luxury fashion growth in Q1 2025.

When should a brand launch its Ramadan campaign?

Assets should be complete and live four to eight weeks before Ramadan begins, because research and early occasion buying start well before the month itself.

Does the shifting date really change the collection?

Yes. Ramadan moves roughly eleven days earlier each year, so fabric weight, palette and shoot conditions drift over time. Toluna's 2025 research specifically examined the impact of Ramadan moving into winter months on consumer behaviour.

Is Eid gifting a separate opportunity from personal purchase?

Yes, and it runs on its own timeline with its own creative requirements — presentation, packaging and gift framing rather than personal styling.

Sources

• Redseer Strategy Consulting, “Ramadan Rush: Increased Excitement Set to Fuel Spend in UAE”, March 2025 — UAE Ramadan-period retail spend projected in the region of USD 10bn.
• Toluna, “2025 Ramadan & Eid al-Fitr Insights — UAE & KSA”, April 2025 — online quantitative survey of consumers aged 18–60 in the UAE (n≈510) and Saudi Arabia (n≈500), covering shopping plans, gifting and media behaviour around Ramadan and Eid.
• Chalhoub Group, “GCC Personal Luxury 2024: Unstoppable”, May 2025 — GCC personal luxury retail sales USD 12.8bn in 2024, +6% YoY; Q1 2025 luxury fashion +11%, with a favourable Ramadan calendar cited as a contributing factor.
• Redseer Strategy Consulting, “GCC's Online Retail Market is Truly Democratic”, November 2025 — fashion is the largest online retail category at ≈ 37% of GMV in Saudi Arabia and ≈ 30% in the UAE; cross-border trade is a significant share of transactions; omnichannel drives more than a third of online retail.
• Redseer Strategy Consulting, “GCC Fashion Market Outlook”, April 2025 — GCC fashion retail ≈ USD 85bn, forecast ≈ USD 127bn by 2030 at ≈ 7% CAGR; UAE and Saudi Arabia ≈ 80% of the market.

Working with MODULA

Ramadan campaigns are won on the production calendar. We plan and produce Gulf seasonal content months ahead so the assets exist before the demand does.

MODULA is an Israel-based AI fashion production studio specialising in premium and modest fashion, combining luxury fashion strategy, creative direction, visual branding and AI-assisted campaign production. We build a distinct visual system per market rather than one Gulf-wide template. Talk to us on WhatsApp about your collection and your target country.